America Has a Path to the World Cup Final and Spaniards Are Standing Right in the Middle of It

“Dubbya” Bush called the US soccer locker room before kickoff and told the players the whole country was behind them.

That was June 2002 – and what happened next was the greatest run in American soccer history.

This summer, on home soil, for the first time since that team, there is a legitimate argument the US can do it again – if they can get past what the bracket has waiting for them.

Bosnia Is the First Hurdle

The US opens knockout play July 1 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Christian Pulisic – the AC Milan winger who is the best American soccer player alive – returned from injury late in the group stage and is healthy heading into the knockout rounds.

The US beat Paraguay 4-1 and shut out Australia 2-0 to win Group D outright, then rested starters in a meaningless 3-2 loss to Turkey.

Bosnia made it this far by drawing Canada, taking a 4-1 beating from Switzerland, then recovering to beat Qatar 3-1.

They have never advanced past the group stage in their only other World Cup appearance, which was 2014.

Oddsmakers have the US as a -255 favorite – an implied win probability of 72%.

Bosnia's most recognizable name is Edin Džeko, a 40-year-old striker who is still grinding out World Cup minutes at an age when most players have been retired for years.

Their most dangerous threat is a winger named Esmir Bajraktarević – a kid from New England who played one game for the US team, then switched his allegiance to represent Bosnia.

He scored the penalty in qualifying that eliminated Italy and sent his team here.

Win July 1 and the US advances to Seattle for a Round of 16 match in early July.

The Wall Has a Name

Survive Seattle and the bracket delivers Belgium or Egypt in the next round.

Belgium struggled early but recovered to win Group G.

Egypt – led by Mohamed Salah – pushed them hard and advanced as group runners-up.

Either matchup is survivable.

What comes next is not survivable on paper.

The most likely quarterfinal opponent is Spain – a team that has not surrendered a single goal through three group-stage matches.

Undefeated. Unscored upon. Playing the best soccer in the tournament.

This spring, Spain handed the US a 5-1 loss in a friendly – the kind of result that tells you exactly where the gap is.

Spain is the wall.

What That 1-0 Loss to Germany Actually Meant

Before the US beat Mexico in the 2002 Round of 16, President Bush called the locker room.

The team had come out of nowhere – beat Portugal in the group stage, stunned Mexico 2-0 with goals from Landon Donovan and Brian McBride – and suddenly found itself in the quarterfinals against Germany.

Germany won 1-0.

A shot by Gregg Berhalter – the same man who would later coach this program – hit a German defender's arm on the goal line in the second half.

No VAR in 2002.

No penalty.

The US went home.

That was 24 years ago and the program has never been back to the quarterfinals.

They failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup entirely.

They lost in the round of 16 in Qatar in 2022.

This squad, playing at home in front of packed American crowds, has a chance to reach the stage that team couldn't quite get past.

Four Games From History

Get past Spain and the semifinal likely brings France – a team that just ran through the group stage scoring at will.

Beyond France sits the final on July 19 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are potentially on a collision course in the other half of the bracket – the first World Cup meeting between those two legends has the entire planet buzzing.

The Americans don't need to think about that.

They need to win four games: Bosnia, then Belgium or Egypt, then Spain, then whoever is left standing.

Data models put the US at 50% to reach the quarterfinals and 7% to reach the final.

Vegas has them at +3000 – less than 4% to win it all.

Those numbers were built by people who watched this team give up five goals to Spain in a spring friendly.

They don't account for what 90,000 Americans screaming in the stands can do to a group of players who haven't been this close since Bush was calling locker rooms.

Sources:

• Sam Borden, "Pulisic Looks Ready to Make His Mark on World Cup Right When USMNT Needs Him," ESPN, June 26, 2026.
• "USMNT World Cup Bracket Scenarios, Odds to Advance, Predicted Path to Knockouts," ESPN, June 26, 2026.
• "USA to Face Bosnia-Herzegovina in World Cup Round of 32," ESPN, June 26, 2026.
• "2026 World Cup Projected Bracket: It's Opening Up for the USMNT," Sports Illustrated, June 26, 2026.
• "USMNT Gets Bad News, as Likely Path to World Cup Title Revealed," Heavy.com, June 27, 2026.
• "Legacy: The Iconic 2002 World Cup Run That Set the Benchmark for American Soccer," Goal.com, December 2025.
• "2026 FIFA World Cup Bracket: Round of 32 Full Schedule," CBS Sports, June 27, 2026.