Rod Blagojevich Named the Michigan Democrat Who He Says Polling History Shows Has Already Proven Wrong

Donald Trump freed Rod Blagojevich from a fourteen year prison sentence in 2020.

Now the longtime Democrat says one Michigan race already proved the polls are lying.

Blagojevich named the Democrat whose primary polls already got it completely wrong.

The Races That Already Proved His Point

Abdul El-Sayed was supposed to win his Michigan primary by nine or ten points.

He won by a point and a half.

Wisconsin's Senate primary went the same way, with the polling on Francesca Hong's race landing nowhere close to the actual result.

Susan Collins already lived through this exact movie in 2020, when the polls in Maine had her losing by several points and she won anyway by nine.

Blagojevich is betting she does it again.

Rod Blagojevich pointed straight at that pattern, telling Democrats their lead in the polls ahead of the November 3 midterms is not the sure thing they think it is.

He predicted Susan Collins wins in Maine, Texas and Kansas stay red, and El-Sayed loses outright in November.

Public polling from RealClear Politics shows some of those same races as competitive or even leaning Democrat, which is exactly the gap Blagojevich is pointing to.

He is betting the published numbers are wrong again, not that his predictions are the reach.

The Twice Elected Governor Staking His Name On It

Rod Blagojevich won two terms as governor of Illinois and three terms in Congress before his career collapsed in a federal corruption case.

He was impeached in 2009 and convicted in 2011 on charges that included trying to sell Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

Federal investigators caught him on a wiretap bragging that the seat was his to auction off to the highest bidder.

A judge handed him fourteen years in prison.

Trump commuted that sentence in 2020, and Blagojevich walked free.

Now he is using his old campaign credentials to call out the party he used to run for.

"Don't believe the polls," Blagojevich wrote. "There will be no blue wave."

He went further, calling the numbers "fake polling, designed, not to inform but to persuade & suppress turnout…"

Then he staked his credibility on it.

"I know what I'm talking about," he wrote. "As a twice elected Dem governor and 3 time elected Dem Congressman, I never lost an election."

Why Pollsters Keep Missing the Same Voters

Historian Victor Davis Hanson has been making this exact argument for weeks.

Hanson says most pollsters lean Democratic, and their surveys tend to exaggerate Democratic strength for most of a race.

He says those same pollsters tighten their numbers right before Election Day, once it is too late for voters to notice, so they can protect their reputations after the results come in.

Hanson also points to the stuff no poll can measure three weeks out: gas prices, the fallout from Iran, and whatever turns up in a Democratic candidate's record once reporters finally start digging.

That is not an accident.

That is the business model.

Democrats leaned on inflated polling heading into 2016, and it cost them the White House.

They leaned on it again in 2024, and Kamala Harris lost anyway.

Every time, the same pollsters promised a wave that never showed up at the ballot box.

Trust in the media and in pollsters has been sliding for a decade, and Blagojevich is betting Democrats are about to get another lesson in why.

Blagojevich just said the quiet part out loud.

A convicted felon with nothing left to lose is telling fellow Democrats the truth they refuse to tell themselves.

Sources:

• Breitbart News, "Rod Blagojevich Unmasks Fake Polling Favoring Democrats There Will Be No Blue Wave," Breitbart News, October 6, 2026.
• Victor Davis Hanson, "Why the Polls May Not Tell the Full Story of the 2026 Midterms," The Daily Signal, September 22, 2026.
• Rod Blagojevich, X post (@GovBlagojevich), October 6, 2026.