Everyone is crunching the data for the 2024 election.
There is one set of concerning numbers.
And Kamala Harris learned some brutal news in this key swing state.
Bad news for Democrats with the black vote
If Kamala Harris loses a blue wall state like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, she would need to replace it with a win in the Sun Belt.
The polls in Georgia and Arizona show Donald Trump with a clear lead.
Nevada only has six Electoral College voters and the early vote data looks grim.
Democrats pegged North Carolina as their best shot to replace a blue wall state.
But the Left quickly realized that Kamala Harris had an unexpected problem in the Tarheel State.
And that’s the fact that black turnout is running below where it needs to be for Democrats to win.
“Black voters make up 18 percent of the electorate in early voting, and some Democratic operatives said they must bump that up to about 20 percent for Harris to be competitive statewide. In 2020, Black voters were 19 percent of the electorate, when Donald Trump narrowly won the state. And Democrats acknowledge that without a swing in their favor in the last days of early voting or on Election Day, it may not be good enough,” POLITICO reports.
Barack Obama is the one Democrat since 1976 to carry North Carolina.
An explosion in black turnout helped him win the state.
But experts who study the data said there are flashing warning signs for Kamala Harris.
Political science professor at Catawba College in North Carolina, Michael Bitzer, told POLITICO that “considering that they’ve made major investments here, probably the most investments we’ve seen since Barack Obama in 2008,” a lower percentage of black voters turning out should worry the Left.
“The numbers are not portending an Obama-like Black turnout at this point,” Bitzer said.
Why the black vote is turning on Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris opening the border, causing the inflation crisis, and letting crime run wild in the streets of American cities isn’t just depressing black turnout, it’s also leading to a defection of black voters to Donald Trump.
“And for Harris, it’s not just a turnout problem. There are also signs of erosion in her support in North Carolina among Black men, especially young Black men, according to public polling. Harris is expected to win a majority of African American voters in North Carolina, and nationally, but any slippage with this group would be a blow to the vice president,” POLITICO also reported.
This problem with soft black voter turnout isn’t just contained to North Carolina.
New York Times pollster Nate Cohn wrote black voter turnout lagged nationwide.
“Most of the evidence from [key] states suggests that the Black share of the electorate might drop and that the overall turnout might drop as well. Republicans are participating more vigorously than usual (even compared with pre-pandemic elections) in early voting. These are very tentative conclusions,” Cohn wrote.
If black turnout lags, the paths for a Kamala Harris victory narrow slightly.
