With two weeks until Election Day, Trump just upended the battle for control of two critical governorships.
Democrats thought they had these races locked down.
But Trump just dropped a political bomb on two gubernatorial races that has Democrats scrambling.
Trump’s Gateway bombshell shakes New Jersey showdown
President Trump detonated a political hand grenade in the New Jersey governor’s race last week when he "terminated" $16 billion in federal funding for the Gateway Project — a massive train tunnel connecting New Jersey and New York under the Hudson River.¹
The timing couldn’t be worse for Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who’s been trying to maintain her polling lead against Republican Jack Ciattarelli in what’s become a dead heat.²
Multiple polls released last week showed Ciattarelli narrowing the gap dramatically. The Fox News poll put Sherrill at 50% support among likely voters, with Ciattarelli at 45% — down from an 8-point lead in September.³ An Emerson College survey found both candidates tied at 43%.⁴
And here’s what has Democrats squirming — the Gateway Project became the centerpiece of the race’s final two weeks.
Sherrill held a news conference at a major commuter rail station just miles from the proposed tunnels, calling the project "critical" while attacking both Trump and Ciattarelli.⁵ She’s betting everything on turning New Jersey voters against Trump in a state he lost by only six points last year.⁶
But Ciattarelli’s positioning himself as the pragmatic deal-maker who can actually work with Trump to get the tunnel built. "New Jersey needs a Governor who has the standing to work with, and when necessary disagree with, the President and advocate for New Jersey’s fair share of federal tax dollars — including the Gateway Tunnel," Ciattarelli posted on social media.⁷
The Gateway tunnel supports over 72,000 jobs and a shutdown could cost $16 billion to the country’s economy over four years, according to regional economic analysis.⁸
Trump made it personal, directly targeting Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. "It’s billions and billions of dollars that Schumer has worked 20 years to get. It’s terminated. Tell him it’s terminated," Trump said at a White House press conference.⁹
Sources confirmed to Fox News that Trump will hold a tele-rally with Ciattarelli ahead of Election Day.¹⁰ That’s Trump putting his thumb directly on the scale in a race that could determine whether Republicans can compete in blue states again.
Virginia race explodes after Democrat’s violent text scandal
The Virginia governor’s race between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears was supposed to center on affordability and abortion.
Then Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones got caught in a scandal that blew the whole thing wide open.
Jones admitted to sending text messages in 2022 comparing then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert to mass murderers Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. In the messages, Jones said if given two bullets, he would use both to shoot Gilbert in the head.¹¹
Get this — Jones also wrote that "it would take Gilbert’s wife holding their dying children in her arms" before he would act on gun safety legislation.¹²
Both parties condemned the messages as violent and unacceptable. Trump and Vice President JD Vance called on Jones to drop out immediately.¹³ Even Virginia Democrats called the texts "appalling" and "disgusting."¹⁴
But Spanberger refused to pull her endorsement or call on Jones to quit the race.
During the only gubernatorial debate, Earle-Sears repeatedly put Spanberger on the spot over the Attorney General candidate’s awful remarks.
"Jay Jones advocated the murder of a man, a former speaker, as well as his children," Earle-Sears said directly to Spanberger. "What if he said it about your three children? I’m asking my opponent to please ask Jay Jones to get out of the race."¹⁵
https://twitter.com/winwithwinsome/status/1978101458072371447
Spanberger sidestepped every question about whether she still endorsed Jones. "It is up to voters to make an individual choice based on this information," she said.¹⁶
That non-answer handed Earle-Sears the political ammunition she needed.
The Republican gubernatorial nominee immediately launched attack ads tying Spanberger to Jones, featuring a clip of Spanberger telling supporters to "let your rage fuel you" — taken out of context from a campaign rally.¹⁷ The ads conclude: "Reject insanity. Vote Republican."
The scandal couldn’t have come at a worse time for Spanberger. An Emerson College poll from last week showed her leading by 10 points, 52% to 42%.¹⁸ But a Trafalgar Group survey found the race tightening to just 2.2 points — 47.5% for Spanberger versus 45.3% for Earle-Sears.¹⁹
Republican strategists smell blood in the water. "This definitely qualifies as something that breaks through, and not many events do that anymore," said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist.²⁰
Why these races matter for Trump’s agenda
New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states holding gubernatorial elections this November. That makes them crucial early tests of Trump’s second-term agenda and key barometers ahead of next year’s midterm showdowns.²¹
Democrats desperately need wins after losing the White House, Senate, and failing to win back the House in 2024. DNC Chair Ken Martin recently touted that Democrats have "overperformed in every single election that’s been on the ballot since Donald Trump was inaugurated."²²
But that winning streak could end in two weeks if Trump’s Gateway gambit pays off in New Jersey and the Jones scandal drags down Spanberger in Virginia.
Here’s what should terrify Democrats — Trump made major gains in New Jersey last year, losing the state by only six percentage points compared to a 16-point deficit four years earlier.²³ Republicans have won five out of the past 10 gubernatorial elections in the Garden State.²⁴
And Virginia has a history of electing governors from the opposite party that won the White House the prior year. Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off an upset victory in 2021 by focusing on parental rights and cultural issues.²⁵
Earle-Sears is trying to replicate that playbook by attacking Spanberger’s stances on transgender participation in youth sports and bathroom access. She’s also seized on federal workforce cuts hitting Virginia hard, with about 11,000 Virginia-based federal jobs lost since July.²⁶
But Spanberger’s been tying Earle-Sears to Trump, attempting to shame Republicans for ongoing government shutdown affecting Virginia’s 320,000 federal workers.²⁷
In reality, they’re not the party that shut the government down.
During the debate, moderators put their thumb on the scales, attempting to censure Earle-Sears for demanding Spanberger answer he questions.²⁸ Spanberger accused Earle-Sears of "routinely" referring to her "as your enemy."²⁹
Trump’s keeping his powder dry on a formal Virginia endorsement, but the White House has made clear where they stand. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said the Jones episode shows how "dangerously radicalized the Democrat Party has become."³⁰
Bottom line for conservatives
Trump’s willing to use federal funding as a weapon to help Republicans win crucial races. The Gateway tunnel termination showed Democrats that Trump won’t play nice just because it’s "the most important infrastructure project in America."³¹
Senate Minority Leader Schumer called it "petty revenge politics."³² But Trump’s playing chess while Democrats are playing checkers — forcing blue state candidates to either defend him or attack him, with no good options either way.
Ciattarelli’s walking the tightrope perfectly in New Jersey. He’s praised Trump’s overall performance — giving him an "A" grade — while carefully disagreeing on Gateway funding.³³ That’s the kind of political skill that could flip a blue state red.
Meanwhile, Spanberger’s stuck defending a running mate who fantasized about shooting political opponents and their children. Even if she wins, the Jones scandal has shown voters what the modern Democrat Party really looks like when they think cameras aren’t rolling.
Early voting is already underway in both states. New Jersey’s in-person early voting runs from October 25 to November 2.³⁴ Virginia voters can cast ballots through November 1, with Election Day on November 4.³⁵
Two weeks from now, we’ll know if Trump’s political bombs hit their targets — or if Democrats can survive the blasts.
¹ "President Trump says Gateway Tunnel Project, billions in funding for Tri-State ‘terminated,’" ABC7 New York, October 17, 2025.
² Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
³ Ibid.
⁴ "New Jersey 2025 Poll: Race for Governor in Dead Heat," Emerson College Polling, October 16, 2025.
⁵ Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
⁶ Ibid.
⁷ "Trump’s Gateway shutdown sparks bipartisan backlash in New Jersey," NJ101.5, October 16, 2025.
⁸ "President Trump ending Gateway Project’s funding has national, local political implications," CBS New York, October 17, 2025.
⁹ "Trump Says $16B Gateway Hudson Tunnel Project ‘Terminated,’" Engineering News-Record, October 16, 2025.
¹⁰ Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
¹¹ Ibid.
¹² "’Beyond disqualifying’: Jay Jones controversy jolts Virginia’s pivotal 2025 elections," Virginia Mercury, October 5, 2025.
¹³ Ibid.
¹⁴ Ibid.
¹⁵ Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
¹⁶ Ibid.
¹⁷ "The Virginia governor race, the shutdown and a text scandal," NPR, October 16, 2025.
¹⁸ "Spanberger, Earle-Sears clash over violence, abortion, and taxes in lone Va. governor’s debate," Virginia Mercury, October 9, 2025.
¹⁹ "Democrats’ chances of flipping Virginia governor’s seat: New poll," Newsweek, October 16, 2025.
²⁰ "Virginia Democratic AG nominee’s violent texts shake up the closing weeks," NBC News, October 7, 2025.
²¹ Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
²² Ibid.
²³ Ibid.
²⁴ Ibid.
²⁵ "The Virginia governor race, the shutdown and a text scandal," NPR, October 16, 2025.
²⁶ Ibid.
²⁷ Ibid.
²⁸ "Spanberger, Earle-Sears clash over violence, abortion, and taxes in lone Va. governor’s debate," Virginia Mercury, October 9, 2025.
²⁹ "Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears clash over Jay Jones’ violent texts," NBC News, October 9, 2025.
³⁰ "’Beyond disqualifying’: Jay Jones controversy jolts Virginia’s pivotal 2025 elections," Virginia Mercury, October 5, 2025.
³¹ "Trump Says $16B Gateway Hudson Tunnel Project ‘Terminated,’" Engineering News-Record, October 16, 2025.
³² Ibid.
³³ Paul Steinhauser, "Fortnight to Election Day: 5 key 2025 races to watch," Fox News, October 21, 2025.
³⁴ "2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election," Wikipedia, October 21, 2025.
³⁵ "Democrats’ chances of flipping Virginia governor’s seat: New poll," Newsweek, October 16, 2025.
