One top pollster slipped up and revealed the shocking figure that will guarantee Joe Biden’s defeat

Mar 7, 2024

Democrats are beside themselves about Joe Biden’s political prospects.

They grow dimmer by the day.

And a top pollster slipped up and revealed the shocking figure that will guarantee Joe Biden’s defeat.

New York Times poll showing Trump up five sends shockwaves through the Left

The latest poll from the New York Times and Siena University hit like a nuclear bomb.

This poll showed Trump holding a five point lead over Biden, which was a seven-point flip from their last poll, which showed Biden up two.

Democrats immediately freaked out and tried to figure out what was going on.

Many on the Left believe Biden’s problem rests with his base and that not supporting the terrorist group Hamas’ call for a ceasefire alienated liberals.

Democrats who buy into this theory think these voters will eventually come home as Biden grows aggressively more pro-Hamas and the stakes of the election come into focus.

Others aren’t so sure.

Leftist pundit Matt Yglesias posted on X that Biden’s real problem is the fact that he alienated swing voters.

“This is such a boring take that people don’t want to write it, but Biden’s biggest problem is people who voted for Biden in 2020 who now say they want to vote for Trump — just insanely banal swing voter stuff,” Yglesias wrote.

Numbers show Biden’s problem is swing voters 

Famed polling analyst Nate Silver concurred.

Silver dug into the numbers in the Times/Siena poll and demonstrated that Biden’s now trailing Trump because voters who backed him in 2020 have buyer’s remorse.

In a post to his Substack, Silver wrote that respondents recalled voting for Biden by a 53 to 41 percent margin in 2020, which was obviously higher than the 51 to 47 percent result.

This happens a lot in polls, as voters like to tell pollsters they voted for the winner even if they didn’t.

But the head-to-head result in this poll for 2024 was Trump 48 and Biden 43 percent.

Silver wrote that the Times poll showed Trump holding on to virtually all of his 2020 vote share, whereas Biden experienced significant erosion. 

“In the poll, only 83 percent of voters who say they chose Biden in 2020 plan to vote for him this year, whereas 97 percent who voted for Trump plan to vote for Trump again,” Silver stated.

Silver explained that this move to Trump didn’t come from core Democrats, as more than nine-in-ten Democrat Primary voters say they will vote for Biden again.

According to Silver, Biden has lost the middle.

“But these vote-switchers largely do not come from the core of the Democratic base. Among the roughly half of Biden 2020 voters in the Times poll who described themselves as Democratic primary voters, a relatively healthy 91 percent said they plan to vote for Biden again. People who vote in primaries tend to be more politically active and more loyal to their party. But if Biden is retaining only 83 percent of his 2020 vote overall, that implies he’s doing quite poorly with people who voted for him in 2020 but who are not loyal Democratic primary voters. Only about 75 percent of this group say they’ll vote for Biden again,” Silver added.

This poll also showed 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job in office.

Biden hewing to the Left’s demands to spend trillions on stimulus and open the border will go down as two of the biggest mistakes in American political history.

Those blunders ignited the inflation and border crisis that sunk Biden’s poll numbers and provided a pathway for Donald Trump to return to the White House.

*24/7 Politics Official Polling*

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