The political establishment thought 2028 was still years away.
They were dead wrong about what’s happening behind the scenes.
And one political insider just exposed who’s really running for President in 2028.
VP Vance emerges as the Republican frontrunner
Vice President JD Vance is already positioning himself as the heir apparent for the Republican nomination in 2028.
According to Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director at Emerson College Polling, Vance is dominating the early field with 46% support among potential Republican primary voters.
Kimball noted that Vance has "solidified himself as the frontrunner" with particularly strong support from male Republican voters and those over 60.
The numbers show Vance has built a commanding lead over his potential rivals.
His closest competitors are significantly behind, with none reaching even close to his level of support.
That’s a massive gap that would be difficult for any challenger to overcome in a primary campaign.
Vance’s early dominance makes sense given his close relationship with President Trump and his role as Vice President.
He’s been front and center implementing Trump’s America First agenda and has built strong relationships with the Republican base.
The polling suggests that Trump supporters see Vance as the natural successor to continue the movement’s work beyond 2028.
Kamala Harris crashes and burns on the Democrat side
The story on the Democrat side tells a completely different tale of political collapse.
Vice President Kamala Harris was once considered the presumptive frontrunner for the Democrat nomination in 2028.
But her political stock has cratered in spectacular fashion according to the latest Emerson polling.
Kimball explained the dramatic shift, noting Harris was "hovering in the high 30s to low 40s nationally" but is "now in the low teens."
In the current poll, Harris sits at just 13% support among potential Democrat primary voters.
That puts her behind Pete Buttigieg, who leads the Democrat field at 16%.
Going from the high 30s to low 40s down to the teens is a devastating drop that signals Democrats have lost confidence in her ability to win a general election.
The 2024 election results clearly damaged Harris’s standing within her own party.
Voters rejected her and Joe Biden’s radical agenda, and now Democrats are scrambling to find a new standard bearer.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is trying to position himself as a potential candidate with 12% support.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are tied at 7% each.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has 5% support, while New Jersey Senator Cory Booker sits at 3%.
The wide-open Democrat field spells trouble
The lack of a clear Democrat frontrunner creates a recipe for a brutal primary fight, with 23% of Democrat voters still undecided.
As Kimball noted, the "Democratic field is fairly wide open" heading into 2028.
A wide-open primary means Democrats will spend the next few years tearing each other apart instead of building a unified message.
That’s bad news for a party that just suffered a crushing defeat and needs to rebuild its brand with voters.
Without a clear leader, different factions within the Democrat Party will likely push the eventual nominee further to the left to win the primary.
That could create the same problem Harris and Biden faced in 2024 when they were too extreme for swing voters.
The early 2028 polling also suggested that some Americans are starting to have second thoughts about a few of Trump’s policies.
Kimball noted that the right track/wrong track numbers have started trending down.
Kimball attributed this to "anxiety of new policies up in the air" as voters process Trump’s tariff and Middle East policies.
Not enough being done to curtail out-of-control Washington, D.C. Swamp spending is also likely weighting on voters’ minds.
What this means for the future
The 2028 race is already taking shape even though Trump just took office.
Vance’s early lead puts him in the driver’s seat to become the Republican nominee if he maintains his strong performance as Vice President.
His biggest challenge will be proving he can win over voters who supported Trump but might be skeptical of voting for someone new.
For Democrats, the collapse of Harris’s support creates a massive opportunity for an outsider candidate to emerge.
The party establishment will likely try to rally around someone like Newsom, but that could backfire if voters want fresh faces.
The early jockeying for 2028 also shows that both parties are already thinking beyond Trump’s second term.
Republicans want to ensure the America First movement continues, while Democrats are desperate to find someone who can beat the Trump legacy.
Kimball expects the political landscape to become clearer as voters see how Trump’s policies play out in practice.
Kimball expects this to change as voters "digest these ideas" and react to Trump’s policies in practice.
The next few years will determine whether Vance can build on Trump’s success or if Democrats can find a candidate capable of mounting a serious challenge.
Either way, the 2028 race is already underway behind the scenes.
