The 2024 election is trench warfare in the Electoral College.
It all looks like it will come down to one battleground.
And Kamala Harris got some seriously bad news in this key state.
Key poll shows Trump in the lead
Polls have shown Donald Trump taking a consistent lead in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Kamala Harris holds an advantage in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
That means the entire election comes down to the commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump became the first Republican since 1988 to flip Pennsylvania red when he won its 20 Electoral College votes in 2016.
Joe Biden narrowly clawed it back into the blue wall in 2020.
Polls from Muhlenberg, Susquehanna, and RMG Research showed Pennsylvania tied.
But a Fox News poll found Trump holding a one point edge over Kamala Harris.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Fox News poll among likely voters (full field)
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 2%
——
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 53%
🟥 McCormick: 44%
——
#16… https://t.co/HgVtunfTWY pic.twitter.com/cqSVP5Dhqo— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 27, 2024
Real Clear Politics lists Trump up by a slight 0.2 percent lead in Pennsylvania.
That means the Real Clear Politics toss up map now has Trump winning the Presidency with 281 Electoral College votes.
The key constituency that could swing the election
Donald Trump could turn Pennsylvania red a second time because of one group.
And that’s Catholics.
A POLITICO piece entitled “Kamala Harris’ Pennsylvania Problem” warned Democrats that without “Scranton Joe” on the ticket, Democrats risked giving back the gains they made with white working-class Catholics that formed the bedrock of their winning coalition in 2020.
Catholics are a traditionally Pro-Life constituency.
Kamala Harris’ support for abortion-on-demand until birth is a major turnoff.
But Charles F. McElwee reported that Kamala Harris’ embrace of the Left’s hostility towards Catholicism – and faith in general – put her behind the eight ball in a state where 24 percent of the population is Catholic.
“Harris’ challenge isn’t limited to abortion. The region continues to inch rightward. And Harris didn’t do herself any favors in 2018, when as a senator she grilled a Catholic judicial nominee about whether he could remain impartial due to his membership in the Knights of Columbus, a respected Catholic fraternal organization with a strong presence in northeastern Pennsylvania,” McElwee wrote in POLITICO.
McElwee wrote that Lackawanna County – home to Joe Biden’s birthplace of Scranton – is a major warning sign for Democrats in terms of the Catholic vote.
Catholics in Lackawanna County don’t have any natural connection to a California liberal who no one can identify what exactly her faith is.
“We don’t have the Catholic connection with Harris. We don’t have the local connection with Harris,” Phil Condron – a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat and advertising executive told POLITICO. “So there’s really no reason to believe that she can approach the numbers that Biden was able to get when he ran last time.”
In 2016, when Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton only beat him by three points in Lackawanna County.
However, in 2020, Joe Biden carried Lackawanna County by nine points, 54-45.
If Kamala Harris isn’t going to hit Joe Biden’s numbers with Catholics, it will be hard to reach his margin in Lackawanna County.
And that means Pennsylvania is an uphill slog for Kamala Harris.
