Donald Trump got hit with one sobering reality about today’s massive election stakes

Today’s elections are pegged to be the first major referendum of President Trump's second term.

But the stakes go far beyond a few governor's races.

And Donald Trump got hit with one sobering reality about today's massive election stakes.

Trump's agenda faces its first major test

Americans will head to the polls today in some of the most important off-year elections in decades.

New Jersey and Virginia will elect new governors in races that political experts see as the first real referendum on President Donald Trump's explosive second-term agenda.

Trump himself has weighed in heavily on New Jersey's race, hosting tele-rallies for Republican Jack Ciattarelli and pumping millions of dollars into get-out-the-vote efforts.¹

But the sobering reality Trump is facing is that history isn't on his side.

Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposing the president in 11 of the last 12 elections since 1977, with only one exception during Obama's presidency.²

The pattern is clear: these off-year races typically serve as a chance for voters to register their frustration with the sitting president.

And with Trump's approval rating at just 45% in Virginia while 54% disapprove of his job performance, the math looks rough for Republicans.³

New Jersey race comes down to the wire

Jack Ciattarelli is making his third straight run for New Jersey governor after narrowly losing to Democrat Phil Murphy by just three points in 2021.⁴

This time around, he's facing Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill in what polls suggest could be a photo finish.

Recent polling shows Sherrill leading by margins ranging from 1 to 8 points depending on the survey, but the race has tightened significantly in the final weeks.⁵

Trump made major gains in New Jersey last year, losing the state by only 6 percentage points compared to a 16-point deficit in 2020.

That improvement has Republicans optimistic that Ciattarelli can pull off an upset victory, especially if Trump's MAGA voters who typically skip off-year elections actually show up to vote.

Ciattarelli has tried to walk a careful line, tapping into Trump's base while trying to avoid being defined entirely by his support from the president.

"This is not Trump's race, it's Jack's race," one Morris County voter told CNN.⁶

But Sherrill has relentlessly tied Ciattarelli to Trump, branding him "the Trump of Trenton" in campaign ads.

The Democrat has given Trump an "F" grade for his performance while Ciattarelli gave the president an "A."⁷

Virginia Democrats hold major advantage

The race in Virginia looks even more challenging for Republicans.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and Congresswoman, has maintained a comfortable lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears throughout the campaign.

Recent polls show Spanberger ahead by 7 to 11 points with Election Day poll closing just hours away.⁸

Trump's ongoing government shutdown has created massive problems for Republicans in Virginia, where hundreds of thousands of federal workers, active-duty military personnel, and government contractors live.⁹

These voters have been going without paychecks for weeks as the shutdown drags on with no end in sight.

Spanberger has hammered Earle-Sears over Trump's policies and the impact of mass federal layoffs on Virginia families.

Earle-Sears has tried to replicate former Governor Glenn Youngkin's 2021 playbook by focusing on culture war issues like transgender policies in schools and Democrats increasingly unhinged rhetoric and violence.

But mainstream polls at least have suggested voters are far more concerned about the economy and threats to democracy than social issues this cycle.¹⁰

Democrats are in full panic mode

Democrats got destroyed last November and this is their chance to prove they're not completely finished as a political party.

They lost everything in 2024 — White House, Senate, and they couldn't even win back the House.

Now they're bringing out the big guns to save what's left of their reputation.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin keeps insisting "there's wind at our back" while pointing to special election wins since January.¹¹

Translation: we're not dead yet, please don't abandon ship.

Obama himself showed up for both Sherrill and Spanberger in the final days, which tells you how worried Democrats really are about the outcome.

When you need a former president to bail you out in off-year state races, that's not strength — that's desperation.

Republicans aren't buying the optimistic spin for a second.

RNC communications director Zach Parkinson laid out the brutal truth: Democrats' approval rating just hit a 30-year low and the party has lost more than 2 million voters over the past four years.¹²

Why off-year elections matter for 2026

Next year's midterm elections will decide control of Congress.

Today's results give both parties their first real read on whether voters are buying what they're selling.

A Sherrill win in New Jersey hands Democrats their first three consecutive gubernatorial victories in the state since the 1960s.¹³

Republicans haven't done that in New Jersey in 60 years, and Democrats pulling it off now would be a gut punch.

It would mean Trump's 2024 gains in blue states were just a temporary sugar high, not a lasting realignment.

Spanberger winning in Virginia? That just confirms the pattern everyone sees — once you have a massive swath of voters suckling at the federal taxpayer teat, as is the case in the Old Dominion, it becomes increasingly difficult to prevent Democrats from punishing the president's party for even the minor chinks the Trump administration has put in the Deep State.

At the end of the day, the bees are going to swarm you whether you just poke their nest or rip it from the tree and stomp it into oblivion. And if you’re going to get stung, why wouldn’t you do all you can to eliminate as much risk of future stings as possible.

No matter what happens in Virginia, watch what happens if Ciattarelli pulls off the upset in New Jersey.

Democrats would absolutely lose their minds.

It would prove Trump's breakthrough with working-class voters and minorities wasn't a fluke — those voters are staying with Republicans.

And that terrifies Democrats because if they can't win in blue states anymore, they're toast in 2026.

If either Ciattarelli or Earle-Sears pull it out, their victory would completely change the conversation heading into the midterms.

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¹ Mike Allen, "Trump quietly pours millions into Virginia, New Jersey governor races," Axios, November 1, 2025.

² Domenico Montanaro, "Here are 5 questions about what the Nov. 4 election results might mean," NPR, November 1, 2025.

³ "Virginia 2025: Spanberger Leads Virginia Governor's Race; Attorney General Contest Remains a Toss-Up," Emerson College Polling, November 2, 2025.

⁴ "2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election," Wikipedia, November 3, 2025.

⁵ "Sherrill, Ciattarelli make their final push for votes in the race for New Jersey governor," ABC7, November 2, 2025.

⁶ Jeff Zeleny and Eric Bradner, "Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but he's a major factor in the November elections," CNN Politics, October 18, 2025.

⁷ Ibid.

⁸ "Spanberger Leads Earle-Sears by 10 Points in the Race for Governor," Christopher Newport University, October 27, 2025.

⁹ Arlette Saenz and Michael Williams, "Virginia governor race underlines future hopes for Democrats as Spanberger makes final campaign push," CBS News, October 31, 2025.

¹⁰ "Spanberger Leads Earle-Sears by 10 Points in the Race for Governor," Christopher Newport University, October 6, 2025.

¹¹ Paul Steinhauser, "5 key races to watch on Election Day 2025," Fox News, November 1, 2025.

¹² Ibid.

¹³ Jeff Zeleny and Eric Bradner, "These are the signals to watch from the New Jersey and Virginia governor races," CNN Politics, October 19, 2025.