The Democrat Party has been living in a fantasy world about their chances in 2026.
They thought history was on their side this time around.
But Democrats just got hit with one brutal reality check about the Midterms that crushed their 2026 dreams.
The numbers tell a completely different story than 2018
Democrats have been banking on a repeat of their 2018 Midterm performance when they rode a "blue wave" to flip 40 House seats and take control from Republicans.
The plan seemed foolproof – historically, the party out of power gains seats in Midterm elections, and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings hover in the low-to-mid 40s, similar to his first term.
But NBC News polling expert Steve Kornacki just delivered devastating news that should have Democrats reaching for the antacids.
The data shows no blue wave is forming – not even close.
By October 2017 during Trump’s first term, Democrats had opened up a crushing 7.8-point lead in the generic congressional ballot according to Real Clear Politics polling.
That advantage held steady for over a year and translated directly into their massive House gains in 2018.
Fast forward to today, and Democrats are clinging to only a 3-point lead in the same generic ballot – less than half their advantage at this point in Trump’s first presidency.
"The blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump’s first term could be seen from far away," Kornacki explained. "This time around, the signs are not so clear."
The reality is even worse when you dig deeper into the numbers.
In March 2025, NBC News found that just 27% of registered voters had a positive view of the Democrat Party – the lowest rating since the network began polling more than three decades ago.
A separate CNN poll around the same time showed similar devastating results, with Democrats hitting record lows in that survey as well.
Democrats are facing their worst party image crisis in over 30 years
Here’s where it gets truly devastating for the Democrat Party.
In 2017-2018, Democrats consistently and significantly outperformed Republicans on party image polling.
Voters saw them as the fresher, more appealing alternative to Trump and the GOP establishment.
Now Democrats are getting crushed on their own party image in ways that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Earlier this year, Democrats registered their lowest positive rating in the history of NBC News polling – a survey that goes back more than three decades.
This finding was confirmed by multiple other surveys showing similar results.
Let that sink in for a moment.
The Democrat Party is now less popular than at any point since the early 1990s, including during some of their worst political disasters.
But here’s the truly pathetic part – the crisis is coming from within their own ranks.
Self-identified Democrats are expressing unfavorable views of their own party in record numbers.
The base that was supposed to be energized and united against Trump is instead frustrated and disillusioned with their own leadership.
These voters want a more "confrontational posture" from Democrat leaders, which helps explain why they embraced the current government shutdown strategy.
The political landscape has fundamentally shifted against Democrats
Look at how the political dynamics have completely flipped since Trump’s first term.
Back in 2017-2018, independent voters – the crucial swing demographic – took a much more favorable view of Democrats than Republicans.
That advantage was critical to the blue wave that swept Democrats into power.
Now it’s essentially tied, with independents viewing both parties with equal skepticism.
The Democrat brand has become so toxic that even their natural advantages have evaporated.
Kornacki pointed out that in today’s "atmosphere of intense polarization," some voters actually want to express their displeasure with the opposition party rather than just the party in power.
Translation: Trump may have energized his opponents, but Democrats have managed to make themselves equally unpopular through their own extremist rhetoric and policies.
The historical Midterm advantage that Democrats were counting on has been neutralized by their own incompetence.
Republicans are setting themselves up for a strong defense
Now here’s the cherry on top of this disaster for Democrats.
Even if they managed to overcome their image problems and organizational failures, the actual math for retaking the House keeps getting worse.
Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win back House control – sounds easy enough.
But Republicans are expected to gain several more seats through mid-decade redistricting efforts, effectively raising the bar for Democrats into the high single digits.
Look, when you can’t even get your own voters to like you, that’s not a polling problem – that’s a you problem.
Democrats thought they had this whole thing figured out. Trump comes back, voters get angry, blue wave happens automatically. Except they forgot one tiny detail: people have to actually want to vote for you.
Instead, they’re watching their own base turn on them while independents run for the hills. The party of "resistance" has managed to make itself more unpopular than the guy they’ve been screaming about for eight years.
¹ Steve Kornacki, "The signs of a blue wave aren’t there like they were in Trump’s first term," NBC News, October 7, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Ibid.
