Dan Crenshaw looked a CNN reporter in the eye and said "I see myself winning" – days before Texas voters ended his congressional career.
He didn't get Trump's endorsement and lashed out at the America First base for years – last night they made him pay for it.
State Representative Steve Toth just destroyed him by 18 points, and the reason Crenshaw lost tells you everything about where the Republican Party stands today.
Dan Crenshaw Went Full Neocon and His Base Never Forgave Him
This didn't happen overnight.
Crenshaw spent years collecting enemies in the one party he claimed to represent.
He voted to certify the 2020 election results and attacked anyone who questioned them.
He funneled billions to Ukraine while American families struggled at home.
He called MAGA conservatives "grifters" and "performance artists" to their faces.
Tucker Carlson publicly branded him "Eyepatch McCain" – and the name stuck because it was true.
Then, he got caught on camera saying he’d “f**king kill him.”
His own 2024 primary opponent raised less than $30,000 and still pulled 40 percent of the vote.
That was the warning shot.
Crenshaw ignored it.
This cycle, Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed 27 Texas House Republicans – every single one except Crenshaw.
While Trump pulled back in recent weeks from scandal-plagued gun grabber Tony Gonzales, he’d previously endorsed every Texas House Republican running for re-election – every single one except Crenshaw.
And Sen. Ted Cruz, who had his own very public confrontation with Crenshaw at a Houston airport, endorsed Toth and cut an ad against him.
When your own governor, your president, and your senior senator all abandon you, the voters notice.
Steve Toth Just Showed Every RINO in Congress What 2026 Will Cost Them
Toth ran a simple campaign: hard-line on immigration, America First on foreign policy, and loyal to Trump.
He won both Harris and Montgomery counties – the two counties that make up the district.
He cleared 50 percent outright, avoiding a runoff entirely.
The district remains solidly Republican, so Toth heads to November as the overwhelming favorite.
But the larger significance reaches far beyond Texas's 2nd Congressional District.
This is the same playbook that ended Liz Cheney's career in 2022.
She voted to impeach Trump, joined the January 6 committee, and told herself Wyoming voters would respect her independence.
Harriet Hageman beat her by 37 points.
Crenshaw didn't vote to impeach Trump – but he did something arguably worse in the eyes of the base.
He stayed in the establishment lane year after year, voting for Ukraine and Israel billions, dismissing election concerns, and sneering at the people whose votes he needed.
Cheney at least had the courage to be openly defiant.
Crenshaw tried to have it both ways and ended up with nothing.
The 2026 Midterm Primary Purge Is Real
The Republican base has now demonstrated twice in four years that a war hero with name recognition, fundraising advantages, and institutional support cannot survive if they position themselves against the MAGA movement.
Liz Cheney lost by 37 points.
Crenshaw lost by 18.
An internal Crenshaw campaign poll from November showed him up 28 points over Toth.
He went from plus-28 to minus-18 in four months.
That is not a polling error – that is a complete collapse of support among people who had already decided they were done with him.
The message to every remaining establishment Republican in a safe red district is simple: what happened to Crenshaw can happen to you.
The voters who sent Trump back to Washington in 2024 are the same voters deciding GOP primaries in 2026.
They are not interested in nuance, not interested in "sometimes I support Ukraine," not interested in complicated positions on vaccine mandates.
They want America First.
Every Republican who won't deliver it is on borrowed time.
Texas Primary Results 2026: Cornyn vs Paxton Runoff and More
Crenshaw wasn't the only story coming out of Texas last night.
The GOP Senate primary ended in a runoff between RINO Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton – with neither man clearing 50 percent despite Cornyn spending nearly $60 million in ads alone.
Cornyn dropped that kind of money and still couldn't close it out – which is its own kind of verdict on how Republican voters feel about the old guard.
Trump stayed neutral all primary long, calling all three of the candidates in that race friends, but a single Truth Social post before the May 26 runoff could decide it.
Paxton is heading into that runoff with the advantage – the most committed conservative primary voters are exactly his crowd, and in a two-man race they show up.
On the Democratic side, State Rep. James Talarico beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett 57–46 for the Senate nomination, setting up a November race they are desperate to make interesting.
Sources:
- Cassandra MacDonald, "Rep. Dan Crenshaw Loses Texas GOP Primary to State Rep. Steve Toth in Double-Digit Upset," The Gateway Pundit, March 3, 2026.
- Rusty Weiss, "Dan Crenshaw Suffers Stunning Upset in Texas GOP Primary: 'Enjoy Unemployment,'" RedState, March 4, 2026.
- "RINO Congressman Loses Primary After Failing to Secure Trump's Endorsement," Blaze Media, March 4, 2026.
- "How Dan Crenshaw's Feuds With Ted Cruz and MAGA Threaten His Political Future," CNN Politics, February 26, 2026.
- "John Cornyn, Ken Paxton Head to Runoff in Texas GOP Primary for U.S. Senate," Texas Public Radio, March 3, 2026.
- "Cornyn and Paxton Head to Runoff; Talarico Advances," Houston Public Media, March 3, 2026.
