The polls in the 2024 election show an extremely close race.
But there is some bad news beneath the surface for Democrats.
And a top pollster told Laura Ingraham about the poll trend that will scare Kamala Harris.
Polls could be on track for third straight Presidential Election miss
The polls missed the “shy” Trump vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections, meaning there were many voters who didn’t want to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump.
Pollster Matt Towery of Inside Advantage told Laura Ingraham the polling data he’s seen that is about to go public shows Democrats may be measuring the drapes in the White House prematurely.
“I’ve looked at polling that I’ve been privy to, and I’ll probably be public in the next few days. Trump is trending up in almost every single battleground state, almost every one,” Towery began.
This conversation occurred in the context of Ingraham asking Towery about comments made by Michigan Democrat Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin at a fundraiser.
Slotkin told her donors to ignore the private polls because her campaign’s private polls showed Kamala Harris was underwater in Michigan.
Towery said that normally he was pessimistic about Donald Trump and the GOP’s chances, but the poll result that changed his mind was the response to the question about who voters think their neighbors are voting for.
Towery told Ingraham that voters think their neighbors are voting for Trump by the biggest margins he’s ever seen and Towery believes that’s the undercover Trump vote that media pollsters aren’t picking up on.
“And when you ask the question, how are your neighbors going to vote? You have very shy Trump voters sometimes. Those numbers explode, and I’ve not seen this in ages. And you know me, I’m usually Mr. Doom and Gloom for the Republicans and Trump,” Towery added.
A national trend
The big polling misses in 2020 and 2016 were in the Rust Belt states.
In 2016, pollsters oversampled college educated voters who leaned Democrat.
Pollsters still can’t agree on how they got 2020 – which featured the biggest polling error in 40 years – so wrong.
Towery explained to Ingraham that the shy Trump vote in the polls he looked at wasn’t just confined to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This time, Towery claimed the shy Trump vote was a national phenomenon.
But Towery did have one note of caution for Trump and the GOP.
And that was the fact that Towery’s polling showed old school country club Republicans still not totally on board with Trump.
“I am seeing a true shift in public sentiment, not just in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. I’m seeing it in Nevada, as a matter of fact, there’s been a turnaround there. The only problem child right now is Georgia, and that’s because the Republicans, you have two groups, traditionalist Republicans who go way back,” Towery continued.
“They’re not feeling the groove with Trump right now. It’s the more new-come Republicans and those who live in the exurbs and down in those areas that were hit by this storm,” Towery concluded.
The polls are as close as can be.
Even a one point polling error could produce a decisive Trump victory in the Electoral College.
And even one top pollster who has never been all that bullish on Donald Trump’s chances is warning that could be the likely outcome on November 5.
